Code Date Venue Fees
PM066 16 - 27 Jul 2018 London - United Kingdom $11,300 Register
Home » Seminars » Project Management » The 10-Day Advanced Project Economics & Risk Management for Oil & Gas Professionals

Seminar Outline

Module 1: Project Analysis: Tools & Techniques for Managing Risk & Uncertainty

DAY 1

Fundamentals of Decision Analysis

  • What is project decision analysis?
  • Selecting projects to meet organizational goals
  • Defining projects, identifying key decision-making factors
  • Risk and uncertainty in projects
  • Fundamental tools of engineering economics
  • Time value of money, compounding, discounting, annuity
  • Appraisal methods (payback, Discounted Cash Flow, Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Value (EAV)
  • Financial analysis using Microsoft Excel

DAY 2

Rate of Return and the Cost of Capital

  • Rate of return computations (IRR)
  • Advantages and disadvantages of profitability models
  • Estimating the cost of capital for a project
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)
  • Comparing mutually exclusive projects with equal lives; comparing projects with unequal lives
  • Using NPV, IRR, BCR, EAV in project selection
  • Comparing mutually exclusive projects using incremental benefit-cost ratios

DAY 3

Cash-Flow Modelling and Project Decision Analysis

  • Project decisions and total cost of ownership
  • Financial modelling and project evaluation: Capital Expenditures (CAPEX), Operating Expenditures (OPEX), Working Capital requirements, Incremental costs and benefits, Terminal cash flows
  • Preparing cash flow projections (cash flows vs accounting profits, inflation, opportunity costs, overheads and synergies, sunk costs, depreciation, taxation, interest, insurance, etc)
  • Developing cash flow models and testing assumptions
  • Business case content

DAY 4

Decision Analysis: Expected Value Concept

  • Overview of the risk management process
  • Risk tolerance and risk prioritization
  • Risk quantification and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) concepts
  • Decisions under certainty, risk and uncertainty
  • Basic Probability Concepts
  • Probability applications: Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), Monte Carlo Analysis
  • Assessing the probability of completing a project within the desired budget
  • Contingency

DAY 5

Decision Analysis: Decision Trees, Scenario, Sensitivity Analysis and Simulation

  • Decision tree analysis
  • Scenario analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis and tornado diagram
  • Integrated practical application
  • Presenting decision analysis

 

Module 2: Advanced Oil & Gas Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

DAY 6

Development Economics

  • A Brief History of Energy Usage
  • Principles of Development Economics
  • Understanding of Economic terms
  • Inflation and its impact on Nominal & Real Cash Flows
  • Project Financing

DAY 7

Uncertainty in Investments

  • Handling uncertainty in Capital Projects
  • Understanding Probability Concepts
  • The expected Value Concept: Features and pitfalls
    • Expected monetary value (EMV)
    • Expected profitability index (EPI)
    • Expected opportunity loss (EOL)

DAY 8

Risks and Uncertainties

  • Risk & Uncertainty
  • Risk eversion and risk premium
  • Exploration project threats and opportunities
  • Economic decision criteria
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Probability Distribution
  • Case study: Monte Carlo Simulation

DAY 9

Setting up Spreadsheet Calculations Using Excel

  • Spreadsheet Calculations
    • Cash Flow Analysis
    • Sensitivity analysis calculations
    • Tornado Diagrams
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulations using @Risk
  • Class exercises: Setting up an oil field Project

DAY 10

Practical use of the @Risk add-on: Oil Field Development Model

  • Developing an Integrated Economic Model of an Oil Field Development
  • Developing and using an @Risk model analysis
  • Project sensitivity analysis utilizing data from @Risk model
  • Training seminar final review and close

Accreditation

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The 10-Day Advanced Project Economics & Risk Management for Oil & Gas Professionals


Upcoming Dates

Code Date Venue Fees
PM066 16 - 27 Jul 2018 London - United Kingdom $11,300

The seminar is split into two modules:

MODULE I - Project Analysis: Tools & Techniques
for Managing Risk & Uncertainty

MODULE II - Advanced Oil & Gas Project Economics,
Risk & Decision Analysis

Each module is structured and can be taken as a stand-alone training course; however, delegates will maximise their benefits by taking Module 1 and 2 back-to-back as a two-week training course.

SEMINAR OUTLINE

Module 1: Project Analysis: Tools & Techniques for Managing Risk & Uncertainty

DAY 1

Fundamentals of Decision Analysis

  • What is project decision analysis?
  • Selecting projects to meet organizational goals
  • Defining projects, identifying key decision-making factors
  • Risk and uncertainty in projects
  • Fundamental tools of engineering economics
  • Time value of money, compounding, discounting, annuity
  • Appraisal methods (payback, Discounted Cash Flow, Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Value (EAV)
  • Financial analysis using Microsoft Excel

DAY 2

Rate of Return and the Cost of Capital

  • Rate of return computations (IRR)
  • Advantages and disadvantages of profitability models
  • Estimating the cost of capital for a project
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)
  • Comparing mutually exclusive projects with equal lives; comparing projects with unequal lives
  • Using NPV, IRR, BCR, EAV in project selection
  • Comparing mutually exclusive projects using incremental benefit-cost ratios

DAY 3

Cash-Flow Modelling and Project Decision Analysis

  • Project decisions and total cost of ownership
  • Financial modelling and project evaluation: Capital Expenditures (CAPEX), Operating Expenditures (OPEX), Working Capital requirements, Incremental costs and benefits, Terminal cash flows
  • Preparing cash flow projections (cash flows vs accounting profits, inflation, opportunity costs, overheads and synergies, sunk costs, depreciation, taxation, interest, insurance, etc)
  • Developing cash flow models and testing assumptions
  • Business case content

DAY 4

Decision Analysis: Expected Value Concept

  • Overview of the risk management process
  • Risk tolerance and risk prioritization
  • Risk quantification and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) concepts
  • Decisions under certainty, risk and uncertainty
  • Basic Probability Concepts
  • Probability applications: Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), Monte Carlo Analysis
  • Assessing the probability of completing a project within the desired budget
  • Contingency

DAY 5

Decision Analysis: Decision Trees, Scenario, Sensitivity Analysis and Simulation

  • Decision tree analysis
  • Scenario analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis and tornado diagram
  • Integrated practical application
  • Presenting decision analysis

 

Module 2: Advanced Oil & Gas Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

DAY 6

Development Economics

  • A Brief History of Energy Usage
  • Principles of Development Economics
  • Understanding of Economic terms
  • Inflation and its impact on Nominal & Real Cash Flows
  • Project Financing

DAY 7

Uncertainty in Investments

  • Handling uncertainty in Capital Projects
  • Understanding Probability Concepts
  • The expected Value Concept: Features and pitfalls
    • Expected monetary value (EMV)
    • Expected profitability index (EPI)
    • Expected opportunity loss (EOL)

DAY 8

Risks and Uncertainties

  • Risk & Uncertainty
  • Risk eversion and risk premium
  • Exploration project threats and opportunities
  • Economic decision criteria
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Probability Distribution
  • Case study: Monte Carlo Simulation

DAY 9

Setting up Spreadsheet Calculations Using Excel

  • Spreadsheet Calculations
    • Cash Flow Analysis
    • Sensitivity analysis calculations
    • Tornado Diagrams
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulations using @Risk
  • Class exercises: Setting up an oil field Project

DAY 10

Practical use of the @Risk add-on: Oil Field Development Model

  • Developing an Integrated Economic Model of an Oil Field Development
  • Developing and using an @Risk model analysis
  • Project sensitivity analysis utilizing data from @Risk model
  • Training seminar final review and close

Quality Logo

GLOMACS is registered with NASBA as a sponsor of Continuing Professional Education (CPE) on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. NASBA have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.learningmarket.org.

 

All Training Seminars delivered by GLOMACS by default are eligible for CPE Credit.



© 2017. Material published by GLOMACS shown here is copyrighted.
All rights reserved. Any unauthorized copying, distribution, use, dissemination, downloading, storing (in any medium), transmission, reproduction or reliance in whole or any part of this course outline is prohibited and will constitute an infringement of copyright.

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